homerun surge

Class finished today. Having a nice group really makes teaching a pleasure. There were a lot of naughty desserts at the pot luck, and it took Yoda-like powers to resist the desserts. The donuts, however, were just too darn tempting. If Agent Cooper could eat donuts, so can I! (Note: This will be my only Twin Peaks nod in this entry)

I read a chapter of Did Babe Ruth Call His Shot? and Other Unsolved Baseball Mysteries (by Paul Aron) this evening. Entitled What Caused the Homerun Surge?, the segment explores possible causes behind the homerun eruption in the 20's and in the late 90's to early 2000's. Reading this led me to check out some statistics. Let's consider the homerun explosion between 1995 and 2002. Between 1901 and 1994, a player reached 50 homeruns in a season 18 times, and 11 different people hit 50 homeruns in a season. Even if we disregard the deadball era (prior to 1920), that's still 18 occurrances (and 11 players) in 74 years. Pretty rare. Now let's consider the 1995-2002 stretch. During those 8 seasons, 10 players reached 50 homeruns in a season a total 18 times. That's not pretty rare. That's not rare at all!

But what's the significance of this?

We could consider the Hall of Fame. I first became a baseball fan in the mid-80's. That's my golden era. George Brett, George Bell, ... and the Yankees weren't champs for the entire decade. Heck, they weren't even contenders! Anyway, when I was a kid, George Foster was the last guy to hit 50 homers in a season ... and that was back in 77. The last guy to hit 50 in a season before Foster was Willie Mays, and that was way back in 65 (before my parents were even married!). The newsfolk who keep watch at the gateway to the Hall of Fame have to consider this when voting on who gets in and who stays out. You can't compare stats from different eras. You can compare players and circumstances, but not stats.